A new PIPA/Knowledge Networks
poll finds a majority of 62% saying that "when
the US government presented evidence of Iraq having
weapons of mass destruction to justify going to
war with Iraq" it was either "stretching the truth,
but not making false statements" or was "presenting
evidence they knew was false" (52% and 10% respectively).
Just 32% said they thought the government was
"being fully truthful." Sixty-three percent said
that Congress should "investigate the intelligence
agencies' performance in providing intelligence
on whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction."
Similarly, 56% said that "when
the US government presented evidence of links
between Saddam Hussein's government and al-Qaeda
to justify going to war with Iraq," it was either
"stretching the truth, but not making false statements"
or was "presenting evidence they knew was false"
(46% and 10% respectively). Just 39% said they
thought the government was "being fully truthful."
Asked, "Do you think that
the Bush administration did or did not imply that
Iraq under Saddam Hussein was involved in the
September 11th attacks?" a very strong 71%
said that it did. However, only 25% of the whole
sample said they thought "Iraq was directly
involved in carrying out the September 11th attacks."
At the same time 52% believe,
incorrectly, that the US has "found clear
evidence in Iraq that Saddam Hussein was working
closely with the Al Qaeda terrorist organization."
Also, 23% believe, incorrectly, that the US has
"found Iraqi weapons of mass destruction"-down
from 34% in May.
Steven Kull, director of the
Program on International Policy Attitudes, notes,
"Despite doubts about the administration's
candor there has been only a slight erosion of
the public's support for the decision to go to
war with Iraq." Sixty-five percent support
the decision, with 46% saying going to war was
the best thing to do and 18% saying they are not
sure if it was the best thing, but they support
the president. This compares to 68%, 53% and 15%
respectively in the May PIPA/KN poll.
"Also the percentage saying
that they believe that Iraq had weapons of mass
destruction before the war is staying steady at
58%, and is likely to help sustain support as
long as this perception holds," Kull comments.
Support Rises to Strong Majority for UN to Take Lead
Perhaps in response to difficulties
in postwar Iraq, the last two months has seen sharp
growth in the numbers of Americans wanting to see
the UN take a leadership role in there.
The percentage saying that the UN
should "take the lead to work with Iraqis to write
a new constitution and build a new democratic government"
has jumped 14%--from 50% in April to 64% today. Those
choosing the US to take the lead dropped to just 31%,
from 47% in April. Similarly, those saying the UN
should direct economic reconstruction in Iraq are
now a very strong 69%-up from 57% in April. Those
saying the US should do so is down to 27% from 40%
in April.
Majority Now Feels Iraq
Reconstruction Not Going Well
Despite Fatalities, Overwhelming
Majority Says US Should Remain in Iraq Until Stable
While various polls conducted
in May found majorities believing that the post
war operation in Iraq was going well, a modest
majority now has a negative perception. Fifty-three
percent described the process as going "not very
well" or "not at all well" (40% and 13% respectively),
while just 40% described it as going "somewhat
well" (39%) or "very well" (1%).
Americans show a fairly accurate
perception of the level of US troop fatalities.
Asked to give their impression of "about
how many American soldiers… have been killed
by hostile fire in Iraq since the fall of Baghdad
on April 9 up to the present," the median
estimate was 40. This is quite close to the actual
number of US deaths in postwar Iraq from hostile
fire since Baghdad's fall-46. Likewise, the public's
median estimate of combat deaths from the beginning
of the war to the fall of Baghdad-100 deaths-is
fairly correct. The Pentagon's official figure
is 87. (Source: Reuters, according to official
Pentagon figures.)
Despite this awareness of troop
fatalities and the perception that Iraq reconstruction
is not going very well, the public is showing
overwhelming support for the operation. An overwhelming
80% said the US has "the responsibility to
remain in Iraq as long as necessary until there
is a stable government." This is down only
slightly from the 86% that answered this way in
April. The public is also not assuming that the
operation will be short lived. Asked to estimate
how long US troops will have to remain in Iraq,
the median estimate was two years.
Majority Expects UN
to Continue Strong World Role
Though the UN
was sidelined in the Iraq war and post-war
reconstruction, only 23% of respondents thought
that the UN would now play a less important
role in the world and 60% said that the US
should not feel more free to use military
force without UN approval.
Furthermore,
when asked broader questions about the significance
of the UN there was no indication of a widespread
belief that the UN had declined in importance.
Asked about "the period after the war
with Iraq," only 23% thought the UN would
be less important (down from 26% when the
same question was asked in March). Seventy-five
percent said that "in the UN would either
be "more important" (30%) or that
its importance would be "about the same
as before the war with Iraq" (45%).
Likewise,
63% thought the UN "will continue to
be relevant to matters of war and peace"
(up from 58% in March); 30% thought it would
not be relevant.
There also
continues to be no indication that the fact
that the US used military force against Iraq
without UN approval has created a precedent
for not seeking it in the future. Sixty percent
said the US "should not feel more free
to use military force without UN authorization,"
while 34% said the US should. This is almost
identical to results in April (61% should
not, 35% should), though slightly lower than
in March (66% to 29%).
How Poll Was Conducted
The poll
was conducted with a nationwide sample of
1,051 respondents June 18-25. The margin of
error was plus or minus 3-3.5%, depending
on whether the question was administered to
the whole sample or three quarters of the
sample. The poll was fielded by Knowledge
Networks using its nationwide
panel, which
is randomly selected from the entire adult
population and subsequently provided internet
access.
(For more information about this methodology,
go to www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.)
pipa@his.com